US President Donald Trump said on Thursday that the United States will not attack Iran before the November 3 midterm congressional elections, describing talks with Tehran as "productive". Iran, meanwhile, said it is still reviewing Washington's response to a proposal under which the Strait of Hormuz could reopen within seven days.
Writing on his Truth Social platform, Trump said Iran is "in very bad condition, both economically and militarily" and that the US naval blockade would stay "in full force and effect". He gave no details of the discussions. At a rally in San Antonio, Texas, he praised his envoy Steve Witkoff but said a deal was "not really something that I want to do", while predicting the war would end "very soon". Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, quoted by the semi-official Tasnim agency, said Tehran could reply within days and that "the diplomatic process is still continuing". Some reports described the talks as being at an apparent impasse.
Trump's post followed a jump in oil prices driven by reports in The Atlantic and The New York Times that the White House had asked the Pentagon to prepare options for strikes that could be used before the elections. Prices have also been lifted by tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway at the mouth of the Gulf through which a large share of the world's oil passes, and by fighting between Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis and Saudi Arabia. On Wednesday, the UKMTO maritime agency said a tanker off Qatar's north coast was struck by "multiple projectiles", causing casualties.
The situation at sea remains contested. A senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Navy official said forces carry out nightly operations against vessels Tehran considers to be violating its rules, and IRGC commander Ahmad Vahidi warned of a "decisive response" to unauthorised passage. US Central Command called claims that the strait is closed "false", and Trump said oil was flowing in "record numbers". Data from the analytics firm Kpler showed transits falling to seven vessels on Tuesday, the lowest in more than two months, before rising to 10 on Wednesday.
On the nuclear question, the head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organisation, Mohammad Eslami, said Iran will not give up enrichment or hand over its uranium, calling renewed US threats "nothing new". Trump repeated that Iran "will never have a nuclear weapon". There were small signs of easing: the first foreign commercial flight since the war began landed in Iran after Washington granted a sanctions waiver for Iraq's national carrier, for pilgrim travel to Najaf. Russian President Vladimir Putin also told his Iranian counterpart, Masoud Pezeshkian, in Turkmenistan that Moscow would "do everything" to help end the conflict.
The politics are central. The war, launched by the US and Israel in February, has pushed up fuel prices, and polls show voters are strongly dissatisfied. Trump's Republican Party risks losing its hold on Congress, and he has said Democrats winning the House could bring a third impeachment attempt. He also sought to calm a row over remarks that Iran could "take out" Los Angeles and San Diego, saying they were misinterpreted.