The UK economy expanded by 0.5% in February, far exceeding economists' forecasts of 0.1% growth, according to official data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). The upturn was driven by strong performances in services, manufacturing, and construction, and the three-month rolling figure also improved, pointing to genuine momentum in the economy before the onset of conflict in the Middle East. However, economists warn the gains may prove short-lived, as the Iran war has sent energy prices soaring, disrupted supply chains through the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz (a critical oil shipping chokepoint between Iran and the Arabian Peninsula), and sharply eroded business and consumer confidence — raising the prospect that the Bank of England may need to raise interest rates rather than cut them.