Colombians head to the polls on Sunday in a high-stakes presidential runoff that pits far-right lawyer Abelardo de la Espriella against leftist senator Iván Cepeda, in a contest that has been marked by disinformation, intimidation, and the unusually visible hand of US President Donald Trump. De la Espriella, who goes by the nickname "El Tigre" ("The Tiger"), led Cepeda by a significant margin in the first round on 31 May, taking 43.74% of the vote against Cepeda's 40.9%, and polls in the runup to Sunday give him a lead of between four and eight percentage points.
Trump's 2 June endorsement of de la Espriella — in which he called Cepeda "a radical left Marxist" — has become one of the defining flashpoints of the final campaign stretch. De la Espriella, a naturalised US citizen and registered Republican who previously lived in Miami, has used Washington's backing to pressure opponents, publicly calling on US authorities to revoke visas of left-wing Colombian lawmakers he accuses of vote-buying. The arrest by US immigration agents of Beto Coral, a Colombian activist and asylum seeker living in exile in the US who had campaigned against de la Espriella, deepened concerns. Cepeda called it a "serious violation of civil liberties" and Colombian President Gustavo Petro described it as political persecution. Several US lawmakers condemned Trump's endorsement as "brazen interference" in a foreign election.
The campaign has been notably brutal even by Colombian standards. Analysts describe it as the most aggressive in recent memory, driven by disinformation and artificial intelligence, with supporters on both sides trading insults including "fascist", "guerrilla fighter" and "paramilitary". De la Espriella has repeatedly promised to "gut and eliminate" the left if he wins, and has styled himself after El Salvador's Nayib Bukele, pledging to build mega-prisons, end Colombia's long-running armed conflict through military force within 90 days, and shrink the state by 40%. Critics, including constitutional scholars, have raised questions about whether his US citizenship oath — which required him to renounce allegiance to foreign states — is compatible with the Colombian constitution's requirement that the president command its armed forces and direct foreign policy. De la Espriella denies any conflict.
On the other side, President Petro's polarising presence has complicated Cepeda's campaign. A court in Medellín issued an injunction barring Petro from using official channels or platforms linked to his office to disseminate electoral propaganda until polls close on Sunday, after he repeatedly flouted an earlier ruling by Colombia's Council of State. Following the first round, Petro briefly suggested fraud involving 800,000 votes — a claim Cepeda echoed before quickly walking back. More than 50 civil society organisations this week urged both campaigns to commit to accepting the results, noting that election observers from the EU, the OAS, and other independent bodies had certified the first round as transparent and largely safe.
The vote is widely seen as a test for Colombian democracy itself. Colombia, a country of some 52 million people in the northwest of South America, has a long history of political violence and was among the first in the region to establish a landmark progressive constitution in 1991. A de la Espriella victory would represent the biggest gain yet for the wave of far-right populism that has already brought leaders like Javier Milei in Argentina and Bukele in El Salvador to power — and would give Washington considerable influence over a country it already regards as a key regional partner. Whether the large number of Colombians who abstained in the first round turns out, and for whom, may ultimately decide the outcome.