Three years after fighting erupted between Sudan's national army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), the conflict has entered its fourth year with no clear path to resolution. On April 15, 2023, the two forces — whose commanders had jointly ousted long-time ruler Omar al-Bashir in 2019 before turning on each other over a power struggle and plans to integrate their armies — plunged Sudan into a war that has since become what United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres called a "tragic milestone," and what German Chancellor Friedrich Merz described as "the largest humanitarian crisis of our time."

On the ground, the war has carved Sudan into two broad zones of control. The Sudanese Armed Forces hold the north, centre, east and the capital, Khartoum — which they recaptured in May of last year after more than two years of RSF occupation. The army has since reclaimed several other key cities, including Wad Madani, el-Obeid, Kadugli and Bara. The RSF, meanwhile, consolidated its grip on Darfur after capturing el-Fasher, the capital of North Darfur, in October 2025 following a two-year siege, and has effectively taken control of West Kordofan after the army withdrew from the Heglig oilfield. The RSF has also opened a new front in Blue Nile State, along the border with Ethiopia, in conjunction with the armed movement SPLM-North. Military analysts describe the overall situation as a stalemate, with neither side capable of a decisive victory and drone warfare increasingly replacing conventional ground combat — UN figures attribute at least 700 civilian casualties this year alone to drone strikes.

The human cost is staggering. According to a joint report by the International Committee of the Red Cross, UNICEF, and Intersos, around 14 million people have been displaced over three years, with more than 13 million still displaced or living as refugees. Some 26 million people face acute food insecurity, and 33.7 million require humanitarian assistance. German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul, speaking at the Sudan Conference held in Berlin on the conflict's third anniversary, described aerial images of el-Fasher after its fall — showing "pools of blood and piles of bodies" — and warned that the total death toll since 2023 likely runs into the hundreds of thousands. "Far from public perception, the world's greatest man-made humanitarian catastrophe is unfolding in Sudan," he said.

The Berlin conference, attended by delegations from more than 60 countries and over 50 Sudanese and international NGOs, produced pledges of more than €1.5 billion in aid. Germany alone committed over €230 million for 2025. Yet the funding remains deeply insufficient: as of the conference, the international community had covered just 16 percent of Sudan's basic humanitarian needs this year. Last year's $4.2 billion aid plan was only 39.5 percent funded. Meanwhile, Sudanese civilian and political actors meeting in Berlin issued a joint declaration calling for an immediate ceasefire, protection of civilians, unimpeded humanitarian access, and a Sudanese-led political transition toward democratic civilian rule.

Diplomatic efforts to end the war have so far stalled. A Quadrilateral Initiative involving the United States, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates — whose member states back opposing sides in the conflict — failed to secure a breakthrough despite presenting a peace plan in September. Relations between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi have also soured following clashes between their respective allies in Yemen. On the political front, the appointment of Kamil El-Tayeb Idris as prime minister in May 2025 and the formation of a civilian-backed government marked a symbolic step, but analysts warn that the risk of permanent territorial and administrative division between eastern and western Sudan is growing, particularly as the RSF attempts to build parallel governance structures. An arms embargo, called for by the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, remains difficult to enforce in practice — a reality Wadephul acknowledged, even as he described the proposal as "correct."