British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron will co-host an emergency summit in Paris on Friday aimed at securing safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway connecting the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea through which roughly a fifth of the world's oil supply passes. Downing Street confirmed the two leaders will work toward what it described as "a coordinated, independent, multinational plan to safeguard international shipping once the conflict ends" — a conflict that began with US-Israeli strikes on Iran on 28 February.
Macron, who spoke by phone with both Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and US President Donald Trump on Monday, has called for an immediate and unconditional reopening of the strait and urged Washington and Tehran to return to the negotiating table. Diplomatic activity is intensifying on multiple fronts: Pakistan has proposed a second round of US-Iran talks for later this week after a weekend meeting in Islamabad failed to resolve the central dispute over Iran's uranium enrichment programme. Iran is also reported to be considering temporarily suspending its own shipping through the strait to avoid triggering a confrontation with the US blockade of Iranian ports, which came into force earlier this week, and to preserve space for diplomacy.
On the ground, the situation remains volatile but cautiously managed. Three Iran-linked tankers transited the strait on Tuesday — none of them bound for Iranian ports and therefore not covered by the American blockade. Marine intelligence platform Windward also flagged a Comoros-flagged bulk carrier that had been running "dark" — with its tracking systems switched off — since the start of the war and has now reappeared in the waterway. Meanwhile, international humanitarian organisations have begun sending emergency aid to Iran via overland routes after six weeks of strikes left supplies stranded in Dubai warehouses.
The economic consequences of the crisis are drawing urgent warnings from major institutions. The International Energy Agency forecasts the steepest quarterly drop in global oil demand since the Covid-19 pandemic, assuming shipping through Hormuz resumes by May. The International Monetary Fund has warned that a worst-case escalation could push the world to "a close call for a global recession" — only the fifth such moment since 1980 — and that the UK faces the sharpest growth downgrade in the G7. UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves said she was "very frustrated and angry" that the United States entered the war "without a clear exit plan."
Diplomatically, the wider coalition is shifting. Italy suspended its defence memorandum of understanding with Israel, prompting sharp criticism from Trump, who said he was "shocked" by Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and alleged she did not care whether Iran acquired a nuclear weapon. Egypt, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan have formed a four-nation bloc seeking de-escalation, and Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty travelled to Washington to meet Secretary of State Marco Rubio. In a separate, historic development, Israeli and Lebanese ambassadors held direct talks in Washington — the first such official contact in decades — with Rubio in attendance, even as the Lebanese militia Hezbollah urged Beirut to walk away from the process.