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South Africa·Energy·Trade & Economy

Gas supply cliff threatens South Africa's economic stability by 2028

Wednesday, 22 July 2026, 08:15 · 1 min read

South Africa faces a looming industrial crisis as natural gas supplies from Mozambique's Pande and Temane fields — which have provided roughly 90% of the country's gas for over two decades — are projected to decline sharply after 2028. Although gas accounts for only about 2.5% of South Africa's total energy supply, it holds outsized strategic importance: it powers Sasol's synthetic fuels and chemicals operations at Secunda and Sasolburg, and supports industries ranging from steel and glass to brewing and food production, with between 70,000 and 100,000 jobs directly at risk and Sasol alone contributing an estimated 5% of GDP. Analysts say South Africa must urgently pursue a dual liquefied natural gas (LNG) import strategy — establishing terminals at Richards Bay on the KwaZulu-Natal coast and at Matola in Mozambique to feed inland pipelines — while reforming its regulatory framework and creating a dedicated coordination body, warning that further delays will result in energy costs two to five times higher than current levels and could severely undermine the country's manufacturing competitiveness.

Sources
The ConversationA sharp fall in gas supplies in 2028 threatens South Africa’s economy: how to manage the fallout ↗︎
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