At least 160,000 Australians with disabilities are set to lose access to the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS) by 2030, as Health Minister Mark Butler announced sweeping cuts to the flagship A$50 billion support programme, describing the changes as "unavoidable and urgent."

Speaking at the National Press Club in Canberra ahead of the 12 May federal budget, Butler said the reforms would reduce the number of scheme participants from the current 760,000 to around 600,000 by the end of the decade — well short of projections that had forecast more than 900,000 participants. Annual spending growth will be capped at 2% until 2030, down from the current rate of more than 10%, bringing the scheme's projected cost from over $70 billion to around $55 billion by that date. People assessed as having lower support needs will be moved off the scheme, average plan spending will be reduced to approximately $26,000 — returning to 2023 levels — and spending on third-party plan managers will be cut by 30%. Unspent funds will no longer roll over between plans, and diagnosis lists will be removed as the primary gateway to eligibility.

The NDIS, established over a decade ago as a universal insurance model to fund individualised disability supports, has faced sustained scrutiny over rapid cost growth. Butler argued the scheme had become a target for fraud and misuse, citing warnings from the Australian Criminal Intelligence Commission that organised crime gangs had exploited it to launder money. "These reforms are about much more than budget savings," he said. "This is about saving the NDIS itself." The government will also significantly expand mandatory registration requirements for service providers, particularly those delivering personal care and support in closed settings, responding to longstanding concerns about probity and quality control.

The announcement has drawn fierce criticism from disability advocates, state governments, and political opponents. The Greens' leader, Larissa Waters, accused the government of balancing the budget "by selling disabled people's dignity," while the chair of the Every Australian Counts campaign, George Taleporos, warned the government must consult with the disability community before implementing any changes. Queensland's disability minister raised particular concern about the impact on rural, regional, and First Nations communities, warning that cost would simply be transferred to states ill-equipped to absorb it. New South Wales Premier Chris Minns acknowledged the federal government's challenge but was blunt: "We can't provide at the state level the same services that were currently provided by the NDIS. We don't have billions to throw into it."

The reforms will require legislation to be passed through the Senate, where the government may face resistance from the Greens and crossbenchers. The opposition leader, Angus Taylor, signalled a willingness to cooperate on measures that reduce spending, leaving the government's path to legislative passage uncertain but not entirely blocked. For advocates, the central concern remains whether the people who lose access to the NDIS will find adequate support elsewhere — a question that, for now, neither the federal government nor the states have fully answered.